How to express probability in English

It’s easy to say “maybe.” It’s harder to say exactly how sure you are.

Are you almost certain? Just guessing? Not convinced it’ll happen? English has different ways to talk about probability, depending on how confident you feel.

Once you get the feel for these, picking the right one becomes second nature.

When you're almost sure it'll happen

Sometimes you're fairly confident something is going to happen, but you're not saying it's guaranteed. You want to sound sure, just not absolute.

One of the most common phrases for those moments is "I bet." It sounds confident and conversational at once. You do believe it; you're just not staking your life on it.

• I bet it's going to rain later.
• I bet she forgot about the meeting.

A stronger option is "sure to," which feels more definite, though you're still leaving room to be wrong.

• The movie is sure to be a hit.
• He's sure to win.

If you want to sound confident without sounding absolute, you can use phrases like "there's every chance" or "more than likely."

• There's every chance we'll wrap up the project early.
• He's more than likely attending the conference.

For a more formal tone, you might choose "in all probability" or "in all likelihood." You're more likely to see these in writing than hear them in everyday conversation.

• In all probability, the event will be pushed back.
• In all likelihood, she'll accept the offer.

When you think it'll probably happen

Sometimes you think something will probably happen, but you don't want to sound too certain.

Phrases like "odds are" and "chances are" are very common here. Both suggest you think it's likely, but you're not committing to it as a prediction.

• Odds are he'll join us for dinner.
• Chances are she's already heard the news.

You'll also hear "there's a good chance" or "there's a fair chance." All of these sit somewhere between "maybe" and "definitely."

• There's a good chance the concert will sell out.
• There's a fair chance we'll finish early.

When you doubt it'll happen

Sometimes you don't think something will happen, but you don't want to say "probably not." There are softer ways to put it.

One option is "hardly likely."

• It's hardly likely that he'll reconsider.

Another common phrase is "I can't see . . .” It keeps it as your view on things, not a verdict.

• I can't see that happening soon.
• I can't see them agreeing to that.

To talk about a very low probability, you can use "a slim chance" or "an outside chance." A slim chance suggests it's very unlikely; an outside chance is slightly more hopeful, but still unlikely. Both are useful when you want to soften a no.

• There's a slim chance flights will resume tomorrow.
• There's an outside chance of rain.

When it's basically impossible

Sometimes you don't just doubt something. You're convinced it won't happen. There are a few cheeky expressions for that.

One of the strongest is "doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell." It means there's basically no chance, informal and very strong.

• He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell against the champion.

Another is "that'll be the day." This one's usually sarcastic. You're saying you don't believe it at all.

• He'll pay for everyone's dinner? That'll be the day.

For a lighter tone, there's "when pigs fly." It's used for anything you're sure will never happen.

• I'll start going to the gym when pigs fly.

You'll mostly hear all of these in conversation. They're strong, but they're playful too.

When you knew it all along

Sometimes something happens and you realize you knew it would.

In that moment, you might say "it was bound to happen." It suggests the result didn't surprise you.

• I told you it was bound to happen.
• It was bound to happen sooner or later.

If you want to sound even more confident, there's "I saw it coming a mile away." This one's cockier because you're saying the outcome was obvious all along.

• That plot twist? I saw it coming a mile away.
• I saw it coming a mile off.

Both phrases are informal and usually come after the result is clear, when you're looking back on what happened.

When it comes down to it, you can’t predict the future. No one can. But you can choose how sure you sound. And English gives you a lot of flexibility there. The more range you have, the more natural and confident you’ll come across.