Discussing probability in English

Discussing the likelihood of an event isn't just about crunching numbers. English is peppered with a diverse array of phrases and idioms to articulate varying degrees of probability.

If you're transitioning from German to English, mastering these probability phrases can enrich your conversations and give them a native touch. We’ve compiled this brief probability guide to give you a better understanding of the nuances of these expressions.

Events you're almost certain about

When you're confident about an upcoming event, or you can sense something on the horizon, these phrases will serve you well:

I bet: A relaxed way of expressing confidence.

Example: "I bet it’s going to rain later."

Sure to be: Suggests near certainty.

Example: "The movie is sure to be a hit."

There’s every chance that: A slightly formal way of indicating a strong likelihood.

Example: "There’s every chance that we’ll wrap up the project early."

More than likely/as likely as not: Phrases indicating high probability.

Examples:

• "He’s more than likely attending the conference."
• "She’ll probably start her own business, as likely as not."

In all probability/likelihood: A refined way of expressing high probability.

Example: "In all probability, the event will be pushed back."

When things are probable but not guaranteed

For situations that seem likely but aren't set in stone:

Odds are that: Commonly used to hint at strong probability.

Example: "Odds are he'll join us for dinner."

Chances are, or there’s a good/fair chance that: Indicating a good probability without assurance.

Examples:

• "Chances are she's already heard the news."
• "There's a good chance the concert will sell out."

When things are somewhat unlikely

For situations where hope remains, though it's fading:

It’s hardly likely/can’t see that happening: Ways to express doubt.

Examples:

• "It’s hardly likely he'll reconsider."
• "I can't see that change happening soon."

Little/a slim chance that: Indicating minimal possibilities.

Examples:

• "There's a slim chance flights will resume tomorrow."
• "There’s little chance they'll reverse the decision."

Outside chance: A remote possibility.

Example: "There’s an outside chance of rain tomorrow."

When it seems nearly impossible

For situations that seem too far-fetched:

Doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell: Indicates extreme improbability.

Example: "He doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell against the champion."

That’ll be the day: Pure sarcasm.

Example: "He'll foot the bill? * That’ll be the day."

When pigs fly: A lighthearted way to express impossibility.

Example: "I'll start a diet... when pigs fly."

For the "I told you so" moments

When something expected has occurred:

Bound to happen: Indicates inevitability.

Example: "I mentioned it was bound to happen."

I saw it coming a mile away/off: Expressing predictability.

Example: "That twist? I saw it coming a mile away."

The subtleties of the English language truly shine when discussing probabilities. As you transition from Denglisch, embrace these varied expressions to add layers to your chats. Using them not only helps you sound more like a native but also bridges the gap between German and English vocabulary in the most genuine manner.

*foot the bill = pay the bill